Background
Although obesity is a known risk factor for pancreatic cancer, the role of dynamic weight fluctuations remains unclear. We examined whether body mass index (BMI) variability is associated with pancreatic cancer risk in a large South Korean cohort.
Methods
We analyzed data from 232,322 participants in the Korean National Health Insurance Service database who underwent three health examinations between 2002 and 2007. Participants were followed from 2008 until pancreatic cancer diagnosis, death, or the end of the study period in 2019. BMI variability, assessed using average successive variability, was categorized into tertiles. We used Cox proportional hazards models to calculate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals after adjusting for potential confounders. Sensitivity analyses were performed to verify the robustness of our findings.
Results
In the overall cohort, BMI variability showed no significant association with pancreatic cancer risk. However, a statistically significant interaction by sex was observed (P for interaction=0.029), yielding higher risk estimates among male participants.
Conclusion
Although BMI variability lacked a significant overall association with pancreatic cancer risk, the attenuation of this risk after longer washout periods suggests the potential influence of preclinical weight changes. Nevertheless, the observed effect modification by sex indicates that BMI variability may retain clinical relevance for specific demographic groups, particularly male participants. Therefore, BMI variability should be interpreted not as a direct causal risk factor or intervention target, but as a potential clinical marker that warrants closer monitoring in these specific groups.

Background
As the global prevalence of diabetes mellitus continues to increase, it is important to identify its risk factors and implement preventive approaches. This study aimed to investigate the association between changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and the incidence of diabetes.
Methods
Data from 152,547 participants, who underwent two consecutive health checkups between 2002 and 2003, and 2004 and 2005, and included in the Korean National Health Insurance Service Health Screening Database, were reviewed. Participants were divided into three groups according to change in SBP: decrease (≥10 mm Hg); no change (<10 mm Hg); and increase (≥10 mm Hg). Cox proportional hazard regression models for diabetes incidence were constructed to evaluate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI).
Results
The median follow-up was 14.3 years, and 26,352 patients with diabetes were identified. Compared to those with no change in SBP, the adjusted HRs for decrease and increase among males were 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02–1.10) and 1.10 (95% CI, 1.06–1.14), and 1.06 (95% CI, 1.00–1.12) and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02–1.13) for females, respectively. After stratifying data according to SBP at baseline, the HRs for decrease in males and females were as follows: normotensive group, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.08–1.24) and 1.11 (95% CI, 1.02–1.21); and prehypertensive group, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.09–1.20) and 1.19 (95% CI, 1.10–1.29), respectively.
Conclusion
Changes in SBP were associated with a risk for diabetes.