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"Risk Assessment"

Original Article

Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Osteoporotic Fractures in Women
Su Jeong Kang, Moon Jong Kim, Yang-Im Hur, Ji-Hee Haam, Young-Sang Kim
Korean J Fam Med 2024;45(3):144-148.   Published online January 29, 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4082/kjfm.23.0186
Background
Predicting the risk of osteoporotic fractures is vital for prevention. Traditional methods such as the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) model use clinical factors. This study examined the predictive power of the FRAX score and machine-learning algorithms trained on FRAX parameters.
Methods
We analyzed the data of 2,147 female participants from the Ansan cohort study. The FRAX parameters employed in this study included age, sex (female), height and weight, current smoking status, excessive alcohol consumption (>3 units/d of alcohol), and diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis. Osteoporotic fracture was defined as one or more fractures of the hip, spine, or wrist during a 10-year observation period. Machine-learning algorithms, such as gradient boosting, random forest, decision tree, and logistic regression, were employed to predict osteoporotic fractures with a 70:30 training-to-test set ratio. We evaluated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) scores to assess and compare the performance of these algorithms with the FRAX score.
Results
Of the 2,147 participants, 3.5% experienced osteoporotic fractures. Those with fractures were older, shorter in height, and had a higher prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis, as well as higher FRAX scores. The AUROC for the FRAX was 0.617. The machine-learning algorithms showed AUROC values of 0.662, 0.652, 0.648, and 0.637 for gradient boosting, logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest, respectively.
Conclusion
This study highlighted the immense potential of machine-learning algorithms to improve osteoporotic fracture risk prediction in women when complete FRAX parameter information is unavailable.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Clinical Applicability of Machine Learning in Family Medicine
    Jungun Lee
    Korean Journal of Family Medicine.2024; 45(3): 123.     CrossRef
  • Integrating Machine Learning for Personalized Fracture Risk Assessment: A Multimodal Approach
    Sheikh Mohd Saleem, Shah Sumaya Jan
    Korean Journal of Family Medicine.2024; 45(6): 356.     CrossRef
  • 2,977 View
  • 74 Download
  • 2 Web of Science
  • 2 Crossref

Review Article

RoBANS 2: A Revised Risk of Bias Assessment Tool for Nonrandomized Studies of Interventions
Hyun-Ju Seo, Soo Young Kim, Yoon Jae Lee, Ji-Eun Park
Korean J Fam Med 2023;44(5):249-260.   Published online July 7, 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4082/kjfm.23.0034
Assessment of the risk of bias is an essential component of any systematic review. This is true for both nonrandomized studies and randomized trials, which are the main study designs of systematic reviews. The Risk of Bias Assessment Tool for Nonrandomized Studies (RoBANS) was developed in 2013 and has gained wide usage as a risk-of-bias assessment tool for nonrandomized studies. Four risk-of-bias assessment experts revised it by reviewing existing assessment tools and user surveys. The main modifications included additional domains of selection and detection bias susceptible to nonrandomized studies of interventions, a more detailed consideration of the comparability of participants, and more reliable and valid outcome measurements. A psychometric assessment of the revised RoBANS (RoBANS 2) revealed acceptable inter-rater reliability (weighted kappa, 0.25 to 0.49) and construct validity in which intervention effects of studies with an unclear or high risk of bias were overestimated. The RoBANS 2 has acceptable feasibility, fair-to-moderate reliability, and construct validity. It provides a comprehensive framework for allowing authors to assess and understand the plausible risk of bias in nonrandomized studies of interventions.

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    Wardatul Jannah, Qisty Khoiry, Sofa Alfian, Rizky Abdulah
    Patient Preference and Adherence.2025; Volume 19: 265.     CrossRef
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    Yu Mi Choi, Suyeon Noh, Hyun-Ju Seo, Jaehee Yoon
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    Amanda Holyer, Thomas Stewart, Edward T. Ashworth
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    Fiona Emdin, Sean W. X. Ong, Clare McGall, Valerie Leung, Kevin L. Schwartz, Bradley J. Langford, Kevin A. Brown, Susan Massarella, Nick Daneman
    BMC Veterinary Research.2025;[Epub]     CrossRef
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    Journal of Korean Gerontological Nursing.2024; 26(3): 234.     CrossRef
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    Journal of Cancer Survivorship.2024;[Epub]     CrossRef
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    International Journal of Molecular Sciences.2024; 25(17): 9736.     CrossRef
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    Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing.2024; 38(2): 115.     CrossRef
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    Judith J M Rijnhart, Ava Rabbers, Santina Rizzuto
    International Journal of Epidemiology.2024;[Epub]     CrossRef
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    Journal of Clinical Medicine.2024; 13(22): 6713.     CrossRef
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  • 29 Crossref
Original Articles
Health-Related Quality of Life and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Korean Adults
Hyeon-Young Ko, Jung-Kwon Lee, Jin-Young Shin, Euni Jo
Korean J Fam Med 2015;36(6):349-356.   Published online November 20, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4082/kjfm.2015.36.6.349
Background

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is considered an important outcome measure in chronic diseases, in particular cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is known to be associated with impaired HRQoL. However, few studies have examined HRQoL in individuals at high risk of CVD.

Methods

Using the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010-2012, we analyzed data from 10,307 adults aged ≥30 years. The study subjects were stratified into 3 groups on the basis of their Framingham risk score-a 10-year estimate of CVD risk: <10.0% (low risk), 10.0%-19.9% (moderate risk), and ≥20.0% (high risk). The EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) was used to evaluate HRQoL.

Results

A significantly higher proportion of high-risk subjects than low-risk participants had impaired HRQoL (defined as the lowest quartile of the EQ-5D index); this held true even after adjustment for confounding factors in multivariable logistic regression analysis (men: odds ratio [OR], 1.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24-2.11; women: OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.02-2.08). In terms of the 5 EQ-5D dimensions, a 10-year CVD risk ≥20.0% was significantly associated with self-reported problems of mobility in men (OR, 3.15; 95% CI, 2.02-4.90), and of mobility (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.09-2.24), self-care (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.09-4.22), and usual activity problems (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.17-2.78) in women.

Conclusion

A high CVD risk is associated with impaired HRQoL. After adjustment for demographic and clinical factors, a 10-year CVD risk ≥20.0% is an independent predictor of impaired HRQoL in the general population; in particular, of mobility problems in men, and of mobility, self-care, and usual activity problems in women.

Citations

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    Medicina.2025; 61(2): 292.     CrossRef
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Association of Heart Rate Variability with the Framingham Risk Score in Healthy Adults
Cheol Seung Yoo, Kayoung Lee, Sang Hoon Yi, Jun-Su Kim, Hee-Cheol Kim
Korean J Fam Med 2011;32(6):334-340.   Published online September 28, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4082/kjfm.2011.32.6.334
Background

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between heart rate variability (HRV), the Framingham risk score (FRS), and the 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) development among Korean adults.

Methods

The subjects were 85 healthy Korean adults recruited from a health check-up center. The FRS and 10-year risk of CHD development were calculated.

Results

The FRS in men was inversely correlated with the standard deviation of all normal to normal RR-intervals (SDNN); the root mean square successive difference (RMSSD); the percentage of successive normal cardiac inter-beat intervals greater than 20 ms, 30 ms, and 50 ms (pNN20, pNN30, pNN50); the low frequency (LF); and the high frequency (HF) (P < 0.05). There was no significant relationship between the FRS and HRV in women. Overall, in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the RMSSD, HF, SDNN, LF, LF/HF ratio, and pNN30 predicted an increased 10-year CHD risk. After adjusting for sex and body mass index, those with greater than one standard deviation in the RMSSD, HF, and LF had a 52-59% reduction in their 10-year risk of CHD development ≥ 10%.

Conclusion

This study therefore indicates that the HRV indices, particularly SDNN, RMSSD, pNN30, LF, and HF may be useful parameters for the assessment of CHD risk. Most notably, the usefulness of these HRV measures as indicators for CHD risk evaluation may be greater among men than among women.

Citations

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Comparison of the Framingham Risk Score, UKPDS Risk Engine, and SCORE for Predicting Carotid Atherosclerosis and Peripheral Arterial Disease in Korean Type 2 Diabetic Patients
Hye-Ran Ahn, Min-Ho Shin, Woo-Jun Yun, Hye-Yeon Kim, Young-Hoon Lee, Sun-Seog Kweon, Jung-Ae Rhee, Jin-Su Choi, Seong-Woo Choi
Korean J Fam Med 2011;32(3):189-196.   Published online March 31, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4082/kjfm.2011.32.3.189
Background

To compare the predictability of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) for carotid atherosclerosis and peripheral arterial disease in Korean type 2 diabetic patients.

Methods

Among 1,275 registered type 2 diabetes patients in the health center, 621 subjects with type 2 diabetes participated in the study. Well-trained examiners measured the carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), carotid plaque, and ankle brachial index (ABI). The subject's 10-year risk of coronary heart disease was calculated according to the FRS, UKPDS, and SCORE risk scores. These three risk scores were compared to the areas under the curve (AUC).

Results

The odds ratios (ORs) of all risk scores increased as the quartiles increased for plaque, IMT, and ABI. For plaque and IMT, the UKPDS risk score provided the highest OR (95% confidence interval) at 3.82 (2.36, 6.17) and at 6.21 (3.37, 11.45). For ABI, the SCORE risk estimation provided the highest OR at 7.41 (3.20, 17.18). However, no significant difference was detected for plaque, IMT, or ABI (P = 0.839, 0.313, and 0.113, respectively) when the AUCs of the three risk scores were compared. When we graphed the Kernel density distribution of these three risk scores, UKPDS had a higher distribution than FRS and SCORE.

Conclusion

No significant difference was observed when comparing the predictability of the FRS, UKPDS risk engine, and SCORE risk estimation for carotid atherosclerosis and peripheral arterial disease in Korean type 2 diabetic patients.

Citations

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